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Posts tagged: futurist

Feb 04 2010

Thought-provoking social media trends

The Economist is one of my favorite magazines. I usually read it cover to cover. So imagine my excitement when I saw their special report this week, Social Networking: A World of Connections.

After I read the report, I concluded — to my surprise — that there was really not much new in the report. This is not a negative reflection on The Economist. I believe it’s a positive reflection on the efficiency of Twitter to stream the most important news and trends my way before they get summarized by a business periodical.

Nevertheless, there were a few interesting nuggets I wanted to pass along:

>>Follow me on Twitter signs are appearing on the doors and windows of small businesses around the world. Asurvey found that 17 percent of Britain’s small businesses were using Twitter. They saved an average of $8,000 a year by cutting out other forms of advertising.

>>  A survey of 1,400 chief information officers conducted last year by Robert Half Technology, a recruitment firm, found that only 10 percent of them gave employees full access to social media networksduring the day, and that many were blocking Facebook and Twitter altogether. The  executives’  biggest  concern was that social networking would lead to “social not-working.”  Some bosses also fretted that the sites would be used to leak sensitive corporate information.

>> An astonishing amount of time is being wasted on investigating the amount of time being wasted on social networks.  One study estimated that personal use of social networks during the working day was costing the British economy almost $2.3 billion a year in lost productivity. Another concluded that if companies banned employees from using Facebook while at work, their productivity would improve by 1.5%.

>> The magazine described Facebook’s “hacker culture.”  Their head of engineering’s motto is “move fast and break stuff.”  What matters is getting fresh products out to users quickly, even if they do not always work as intended. To generate new  ideas, they hold all-night hack-a-thons to at which engineers work on their pet projects. This Red Bull culture maybe why Facebook has just one engineer for every 1.2 million users.

>> Survey of 300,000 Twitters users showed more than half tweeted less than once every 74 days and 10 percent of all users account for 90 percent of all tweets.

>> Facebook’s audience is bigger than any TV network that has ever existed on  the  face  of  the  earth.

>>In Asia several social media companies such as Japan’s GREE, South Korea’s Cyworld and China’s Tencent, are already making healthy profits from sales of games, premium personalization options, virtual goods, and custom backgrounds.

>>Salesforce.com predicts that demand for corporate internal social networking services will riseas managers realize that they now know more about strangers on Twitter and Facebook than they do about the people in their own companies.

>>Intel estimates it has saved millions of dollars a year in fees by recruiting senior managers through LinkedIn rather  than using headhunters. US Cellular said it saved more than $1 mm last year by using a LinkedIn system that produced good candidates faster than traditional recruitment channels.

>> Social networks have made the labor market more transparentin another way too. A survey by CareerBuilder.com of  2,700 executives last year found that 45 percent of them looked at job candidates’ social network pages as part of their research, and more than a third of those had unearthed information that put them out of contention. Time to turn up those privacy settings?

Some interesting stuff!  Of these facts and trends, which jumps out for you as having an impact on the way you do business?

Illustrations: Part of The Economist report.

Tags: financial impact, futurist, small business, social media

Filed in economics of social media, social media, sociology | Mark | Comments (17)

Jan 27 2010

The new competitive advantage: There’s an app for that

There seems to be this new genre of media out there meant to scare the crap out of you.  The techno music starts to pulse and then these animated slides whiz these amazing facts at you like “Did you you know that the average worker now spends 26 hours a day on Facebook?”  <next slide>  “And that rate is growing at a rate of 1,120%”  <next slide>  PER MONTH??”

These ”scare slides” are meant to impress you with social media’s omnipotence and power. Through the pounding music they want you to think that change is coming at you so fast that you might as well just call it a day … unless you buy their consulting services.

I don’t know where they come up with these facts, but here’s one that caught my attention: “For a college freshman, half of what they have learned will be obsolete by their junior year.” 

While that “fact” seems improbable, it did make think about the accelerating rate of change and the impact on indivudals as we try to remain effective leaders.

A hypothesis:  Personal “technological adaptability” is going to be an increasingly important life skill.

Here’s what  I mean.  The rate of technological change is occurring so fast that an ability to quickly assess, process and deploy new apps will be a source of competitive advantage not only for companies, but for individuals.

Let’s say we had two employees, equally educated and experienced. Both are given a task. Employee One begins the task, as assigned by the boss. Employee Two first assesses free tools on the web that can sort, organize and automate that task.  Ultimately that employee will provide a better, faster and cheaper result for the company. And get a promotion!

Even two years ago this would not have been an issue. Both employees would basically have access to the same company-issued and approved technology — Excel, Access, Word, etc.  But now, for almost any work task, somewhere, there’s “an app for that.”  The ability to find and apply these free and useful ideas will become an increasingly critical skill.

So what does this mean for me and you?   How do we keep our edge at this incredible rate of change?   Where do we find the time to do explore and learn new applications?  How do companies enable this skill in employees?

Tags: competitive advantage, futurist, personal brand, work/life balance

Filed in best practices, careers, futurist, sociology | Mark | Comments (17)

Jan 17 2010

Number one social media trending topic: ANXIETY?

I was reading Ross Dawson’s excellent blog on media trends and was entranced with a visualization he developed (with Richard Watson) on future trends.

Along with the usual trending topics of urbanization, gentrification and a power shift to the east was “anxiety.”   Anxiety as a trend? 

This struck a chord, especially during a week where every critical technology in my life malfunctioned!  What are the ways technology is contributing to growing levels of anxiety in our culture? 

• Paralysis

Last year I was in the hunt to buy a new digital camera. On top of the millions of combinations of brands and features, there were an incredible number of purchase options.  And sorting through hundreds of consumer and web reviews –supposed to make things easier —  seemed impossible to process.  Many consumers faced with a similar amount of information simply shut down — they are afraid to make the wrong decision. Decision paralysis that comes with too much information is a real issue.

• Complexity

I just bought a new computer. It took me three weeks to move the software, settings and files from one computer to the new one. This involved multiple phone interactions with various software companies, finding licence numbers that required a magnifying glass to interpret and manipulations of servers to get all of my applications to work together again in harmony ( which has not happened).  Just setting up this basic business functionality was difficult and time-consuming.   While individual applications may make life easier in the short-term, the complexity and fragility of technology systems is making life increasingly stressful. Which also leads to …

• Impact of Gentrification

What if I did not have the underlying experience with technology to make this all work?  There are two speeding trains heading straight for each other — the increasing number of senior citizens and the increased complexity of technology. 

• Vulnerability

We are becoming increasingly vulnerable to Internet attacks as our dependence on web life-tools increases and the analog method of doing things becomes obsolete.  Don’t buy that?  Try getting by for one week without email. 

• Ubiquity

Undoubtedly the Orwellian vision of “Big Brother” is coming true. Technology companies may soon know more about us than we truly know about ourselves. What are the implications for how we live our lives when every movement, and every mistake, is recorded for posterity?

• Rate of change

Technology moves in dog years.  If you un-tether for a month, it’s like missing seven months of technological advancement.  The answer to staying on top of things?  Never un-tether.

Before you beat me up and point out all the wonderful benefits of technology (including this dialogue) I’d like to leave you with this thought.  Two hundred years ago, the pressure to keep up with technological change was not even a human consideration. Life pretty much went on as it always had,  and our mindset was that it would continue that way forever.  Mankind lived a rural life dependent on friends and family, weather and livestock … as it had for centuries.   There was no “app for that.”

Genetically, we are cut from the same cloth as our pioneering ancestors.  What are the implications for having a constant imperative in our lives to understand, assess, deploy and maintain our digital selves?

Tags: futurist, sociology

Filed in business relationships, economics of social media, research, sociology, time management | Mark | Comments (16)

Jan 05 2010

Get out your dancing shoes, it’s time to blog

 

Pop quiz: Over the next three years, what is the number one skill that will be needed by marketing professionals?

Answer:  An ability to entertain.

I realize that is not normally something you would put on a resume.  Let me explain.

I often wonder, “Who really has the time to read all these blogs?”  Don’t you feel a bit overwhelmed by the amount of information coming at you every day?  Of course. Who doesn’t? 

Well, guess what … you ain’t seen nothin’ yet!   2010 will The Year of Content as the fight for your attention gets much, much more competitive.  

Who do you think will win that fight?  The organizations with the most riveting content. 

What will make that content riveting? It will entertain, it will amaze, it will amuse.

And who is going to make the big money on the social web?  Those who can make that entertainment happen.

Yes folks, the ability to entertain will be a white-hot commodity.

Of course creativity and an entertainment factor has always been in demand in advertising circles but I think we are looking at a future where you are going to have to employ Madison-Avenue-quality entertainment value just to get eyeballs to your company blog.  Let alone understanding of the message.  Let alone engagement.  Let alone something that turns into a sales lead.  Consumer expectations to be entertained, as well as informed, are rising exponentially. How will you deliver?

I’m not saying there isn’t going to be room for serious commentary and discussion.  Of course there will. But let’s put it this way, if you have a choice to read a blog that’s interesting or a blog that is interesting AND consistently entertaining, where will you spend those precious moments of your time? Case closed.

What are you going to do to cut through this rising tsnamai of content with YOUR message?  Do you really think a company blog or Facebook page is going to cut it?

As for me, I’m dusting off my dancing shoes.  It’s Hammer Time.  Can’t touch this.

Community alert: Jon Buscall, a frequent contributor to {grow} has written an excellent post on this same topic.  Jon writes well but he cannot dance worth a shit.

Tags: best practices, blogging, business strategy, business writing, competitive advantage, futurist, Internet marketing

Filed in Blogging best practices, blogging | Mark | Comments (19)

Dec 13 2009

A futurist’s view of the “next big thing” in social media

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Venessa Miemis’ Twitter bio describes her as a “Metacog, futurist and thought architect tracking emerging media and technology trends & impacts.”  Now THAT got my attention.

Currently pursuing a masters degree in New Media Studies at the New School in NYC, she  has been passionately thinking and writing about the future for seven years. Venessa kindly agreed to an interview and I found her views on the connections between social media and education, politics, global community and our future to be one of the most thought-provoking posts I’ve featured here on {grow}. I think you’ll agree:

What is a futurist and how do I get a job like that?

A futurist’s role is to help people anticipate, plan for, and adapt to change. This means tracking emerging trends and seeing how they fit into the big picture and envisioning different scenarios for what might come next. You could call this “developing foresight.”   It’s a skill set that’s in pretty high demand these days.  Things are changing rapidly and everyone is looking for ways to stay ahead of the curve.

At the professional level, futurists are hired by organizations to help them understand the forces and trends shaping their industries, and anticipate the changing needs and desires of their customers in order to stay competitive.  At the individual level, each of us constantly thinks about our own goals and dreams and develops strategies that will help us accomplish them … so in some sense, we’re all futurists.  I do think we’re in a very transformative period in history, and we all need to hone our “futures thinking” skills in order to actively participate in the process of shaping our collective future, instead of just being a passive bystander.

You first connected with me after seeing my blog post on the future of social media.  Please answer this multiple choice question:  As a futurist, I thought Mark Schaefer’s social media forecast was a) entirely accurate;  b) uncanny and without error; or c) the subject of my college thesis.

Ha, well I think you hit on some great themes.  I wrote a post recently, 3 Key Trends Shaping the Web and Society, that looks at some megatrends that are driving today’s developments.  The one that’s influencing many of the social media trends on your list has to do with the increase in complexity around us.

Historically, as complexity increases, we develop better methods for making sense of it. A big challenge we’re facing right now is figuring out how to deal with information overload, and how to separate quality content from noise.  We’re trying to solve the problem through quantification.  As you mentioned, we’re going to continue to see information about ourselves, our habits, our sentiments, and our social connections become much more clearly measured and defined.

This could potentially be an amazing thing.  If we know more about each other, we may be able to begin collaborating on an enormous scale to solve some of the world’s serious problems. At the same time, as you also mentioned, if we’re not actively involved in demanding our civil liberties and digital rights, we may face some scary situations regarding privacy, power and control.  Thankfully, there are organizations like the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) and the Peer to Peer Foundation that are dedicated to protecting our rights and values as we transition into a networked society.

One area on your list I disagree with is the notion that the digital divide will continue to grow and eventually become permanent. I think it will be just the opposite.  There’s a concept called “leapfrogging,” which describes how areas with poorly-developed technological or economic bases will skip over the intermediary steps and transition directly into adopting modern systems. For instance, you’re not going to see cables laid all over rural Africa so people can have internet access, you’re going to see an explosive growth of internet-connected mobile phone adoption.  As the technologies get better and cheaper, we’re going to see portable devices and interfaces become more seamlessly integrated into our lives, and it will be a game changer.

What are the social media trends you’re most concerned about?  Most optimistic about?

This passed through my twitterstream the other day: “Understanding how networks work is one of the most important literacies of the 21st century – Howard Rheingold.” I think that complements what I’ve been saying nicely.

While some people haven’t even entered the social media space yet, the rest of us are chomping at the bit and asking what’s next. We’re still very much in the Wild West of the real-time web. Just look at Twitter. There seems to be a new app released every day that’s trying to measure something – ROI, influence, impact, and so on. There are no established rules of conduct or best practices, and people are still arguing about whether it’s more important to have lots of followers or to be on lots of lists. Everyone’s trying to figure out how to capitalize on the space.

I understand that business is about monetization, but I think there’s something going on here that’s much bigger than people realize. It doesn’t fit into our traditional business models at all, because we’ve never had the opportunity before to leverage social networks at this scale.  That’s the next big social media trend: understanding how to leverage networks. We’re all here, we’re all connected – now what do we do?

I’ve been thinking quite a bit about the effects of social media in the workplace and the next generation of workers who grew up communicating with their thumbs.  What should we know about this group?

I’m actually rather concerned about this group.  I try to pay attention to what’s going on in many different fields to get a sense of the big picture, and the lack of  “new media literacy” in young people is alarming. You think it’s hard getting organizations to embrace social media — try looking at the educational system. It wasn’t designed for this. Forward-looking teachers see the necessity of bringing social technologies into the classroom to enhance the learning experience and prepare students for 21st century life, but it’s not happening fast enough.

Many young people are not being taught how to benefit from the power of the web as a tool for building a network and for learning. I mean, anyone who uses Twitter or belongs to an online community of some sort has seen that sharing information and learning from one another is not only fun and rewarding, it’s addictive.  Kids need to be shown how to navigate that world too.

I think the social web is enabling an informal learning process to take place that in some ways challenges the validity of our educational institutions.  It might be a bit extreme to tell schools to “‘innovate or die,” but they need to get with the program already. America is already falling behind in so many areas as geopolitical power shifts to other nations. We can’t afford to sit by and idly watch today’s youth go through a system that leaves them appallingly unprepared to compete in a global marketplace.

If the {grow} community wanted to learn more about the work of futurists and their study of social media, can you recommend a few resources?

The World Future Society , the World Futures Studies Federation and the Association for Professional Futurists (APF) websites are good places to start for an overview.  Ross Dawson and Gerd Leonhard focus a lot on the future of media on their blogs.  John Hagel and John Seely Brown both provide great insights into innovation and strategy from a business perspective. I’d also definitely recommend checking out the blogroll on KedgeForward, a blog by professional futurists Frank Spencer and Michael Morrell. It’s an excellent resource for future-focused exploring.

There are also several programs in the country to pursue higher education in Futures Studies. The University of Houston offers a Master of Technology in Futures Studies as well as a Certificate in Strategic Foresight.  Regent University offers a Master of Arts in Strategic Foresight, which is directed by Dr. Jay Gary.  And for those aching to leave the mainland, the Hawai’i Research Center for Futures Studies offer both an MA and a PhD in Alternative Futures through its Department of Political Science.   For a complete listing of Futures programs around the globe, visit this page on the Acceleration Studies Foundation website.

I’ve left the most important for last.  As a futurist, please tell me who you like for the Super Bowl.

My crystal ball has suddenly become very hazy…

Would love to have the {grow} community comment and pose other questions to Venessa!

Follow Venessa at @VenessaMiemis Her insightful blog can be found at: http://emergentbydesign.com/

Tags: futurist, research, social media

Filed in Personalities of the social web, futurist | markschaefer | Comments (19)

Dec 12 2009

Combining the physical and digital worlds

Image2

I received an email from my son this weekend titled “seriously mind-blowing.”  And it was.

Click on the image above to watch Pranav Mistry demonstrate several tools that help the physical world interact with the world of data — including a deep look at his SixthSense device and a new, paradigm-shifting paper “laptop.”

This video is about 13 minutes long (about 5X the attention span these days) but is seriously worth the time.

I would love to read your comments on this.  Think of the possibilities …

Tags: business strategy, futurist, innovation

Filed in futurist | Mark | Comments (3)

Dec 06 2009

This is the future of social media

metropolis

With the dawn of the social web, I can’t think of a more exciting time to be in the field of marketing.  But I don’t think we have really seen anything yet!  Here are 12 developments I believe we will witness in the future … and probably sooner than you think.

1) Hyper social measurement– At some point soon, Google is going to start doing something bold with the volumes of personal data they’re collecting.  Google is in the best position by far to define social media monitoring, especially now that they are taking steps to fold in data from Twitter, Facebook and other platforms. Once Google flexes its social media monitoring muscles, companies like Radian6 will become niche players at best. Complex algorithms will determine real-time sentiment shifts down to the individual.  And it won’t be free.

2) Tapping into text messaging– The one communication mode largely untouched by real-time search is text messages.  This is a goldmine of information too big to ignore, especially if you’re a “cool-hunting” consumer product company.  Entrepreneurs will find a way to tap into the “text stream” by rewarding users for being included in their data-gathering systems. Does this seem improbable?  Would people accept a free cell phone and free data service in exchange for their text information being stored in a database for consumer product research and targeted promotions?  It would work.  

3) The human coupon– The massive quantity of personal information available about you will eventually follow you around.  Enabled by GPS and RFID technology, coupons and special offers based on your buying patterns will appear instantly on your mobile device as you near a store.   RFID chips embedded in packaging will send messages during your purchase decision to encourage up-selling and cross-selling.  For example, if you pick up a blouse off of a rack, a message will direct you to the precise area of the store where you can find a matching skirt … on sale just for you. 

4) Radical privacy movement — This intense data gathering and the use of it in a Big-Brother-like manner will spark a backlash, including legislation, assuring the right to be excluded from Internet data-gathering tools.  Because of its power and control over voluminous personal details, Google will become the most profitable, and despised, company in history.

5) Man-machine interface.  Medical advances and social media platforms will converge.  Scientists are already embedding electronics in humans to power limbs, regulate body functions, and enable the brain to access information from micro chips. It’s now possible to think a tweet or control artificial limbs with a thought.  Humans will routinely carry a computer inside of them, powered by body heat and motion. You will literally always be on the social web, generating messages just by thoughts.  Humans will have markings like tattoos to display the premium, designer brand of devices embedded in their bodies. This will give new meaning to the tagline “Intel Inside.”

6) We become the Internet.   Today, people talk about Twitter, Facebook etc., never really connecting that these are all “Internet.”  As the social web literally becomes part of our bodies, we will no longer distinguish between listening, talking and electronic communications. In our minds, there will be no more web. It will just be.

7) Massive national ID validation. The social web will become the exclusive source of consumer information, political research/policy development, and education systems. Because of the increasingly critical  importance of this feedback and the opportunity for corruption, complex systems to prevent fraud will be needed, including a broadly-implemented government validation program that extends across all platforms.

8) Micro politics — Politicians will use real-time sentiment analysis to craft and re-craft voter appeals right up until the moment they enter a polling station.  Political messaging will be nearly-instantaneous and tailored to individuals based on data purchased from Google.

9) Extreme content — Journalism, film-making and advertising agencies will thrive, much to the surprise of nearly everyone.  The need for content on the social web will drive radical evolution of  these three traditional professions and “Content development and management” will become a popular college major.  While most content today is generated through “free” submissions to YouTube, blogs, etc., salaries for the very best and most creative content providers will skyrocket as corporations raise the creative bar to cut through the clutter. 

10) The loner workforce. The cultural impact of the social web will have radical implications for managing the workforce of the future. How do you deal with a generation of employees who have been conditioned to communicate through their thumbs?  Employee training of the future will look increasingly like video games.

11) Digital divide grows  — For many parts of the world, access to free, global communications will be a great equalizer between rich and poor nations, especially as web-based translation services improve and encompass local dialects. However, in countries where people cannot access the web either for economic or political reasons, the digital divide will not only grow, it will become permanent for one simple reason: they will fall so far behind the technology curve they will never be able to catch up. Digital commerce, innovation and technology will be permanently dominated by those nations in the game NOW. 

 12) Pay for play– Social media is free but the cost of attracting consumer attention will become increasingly expensive, especially with the ability to skip ads.  At some point, the cost per impression will be so high it will be less expensive to simply pay people to watch an ad.   Combined with the “human coupon” trend mentioned above, this would provide nearly perfect information on cause and effect of advertising campaigns. 

Well, that’s enough far-out thought for one blog post and I’m sure you have A LOT to say about it!  Your turn. The comment section is now OPEN!

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Tags: advertising, best practices, business writing, capitalism, careers, competitive advantage, corporate communications, futurist, innovation, Internet marketing, marketing strategy, research, social media, sociology

Filed in futurist | Mark | Comments (59)

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