There have been two passionate and vocal camps when it comes to the AI impact on marketing employment.
Some insiders like Dennis Hassabis of Google are optimistic that AI will create an abundance of jobs. Sam Altman has been clear that AI will aggressively replace jobs (including 95% of marketing!). Marketing guru Rand Fishkin says poppycock to that and claims marketing will thrive in this well-researched post.
What is true? Having an idea of what’s coming next seems pretty important to our companies and jobs! In this post, I provide my view of what I believe is likely, followed by some possible safeguards for our careers.
Guiding observations about AI
Some people have characterized me as a “futurist,” but what I really do is take observable facts and think deeply about the implications of what comes next. If you cut through the AI hype, there are three guiding observations we can reliably build on:
- AI drives the economic value of intelligence to near zero.
- AI is an enabling technology, but also a replacement technology
- Companies are incentivized to adopt new technology when there is an immediate and measurable ROI
Unfortunately, extrapolating these ideas leads me to believe that there could be significant job losses. I could be wrong, and I hope I am, but let’s explore each of these ideas and then consider what you can do about it.
1. The economic value of intelligence
Every human organization is based on intelligence. We hire “human intelligence vessels” for HR, Finance, Engineering, and other functions. Competitive advantage derives from the acquisition and deployment of specialized, even scarce, human intelligence.
But what happens when the economic value of intelligence is zero? This is exactly what is happening with AI.
The unit costs of AI are plunging exponentially. ChatGPT’s inference prices have roughly halved every six months, outpacing even the recent cost declines in technologies like batteries and solar power. This steep drop stems from relentless algorithmic improvements and fierce competition among providers. Lower prices, in turn, drive wider adoption: the cheaper an AI agent becomes, the more extensively it can be deployed.
We already see entry-level jobs being eliminated, and as the level of intelligence advances, general marketing employment could become vulnerable. When the cost of intelligence becomes zero, the traditional organizational structure and career path become a house of cards.
As AI progresses at a breathtaking speed, it’s reasonable to conclude that many specialized “human intelligence vessels” will no longer be needed.
2. The replacement technology
There is a line about AI going around that drives me nuts: “You won’t be replaced by AI. You’ll be replaced by people who use AI.”
That is false. In fact, AI will replace many jobs all on its own.
I’m not saying don’t learn about AI. Absolutely, you need to learn as much as you can.
But in 1908, if you were in the horse and buggy business and you saw a Model T Ford chug down the street, no amount of knowledge about cars would save your business. An automobile is a replacement technology, not an enabling technology.
Using this same car analogy, the advent of the car also created massive new industries — roads, petroleum, maintenance, and more — and tremendous job growth. There will certainly be entirely new business models created by AI, and we will be lucky for that … unless AI creates jobs that AI can handle!
AI is not just a Model T; it’s also the GPS, the Uber app, the electric engine, and the roadside assistance bot. This explains why there is already a decline in postings for many types of traditional jobs, including coders, customer service, and entry-level marketers, for example.
I have a friend whose auditing department just got wiped out by AI. No amount of knowledge about AI would have saved his job or department.
Futurist Azeem Azhar states, “A new consensus is forming: AI is a sufficiently general-purpose technology to disrupt, invert, and ultimately reinvent nearly every sector of the economy. I’m convinced that incumbents have not yet grasped the scale or imminence of what is coming. Many are sleepwalking into a series of Blockbuster–BlackBerry moments that will unfold over the next two decades.”
I concur.
3. Incentives to change
I’ve observed technology adoption for decades and led change efforts at a Fortune 100 company. And I learned that tech adoption is arduous. The technology might change quickly, but company culture changes slowly. McKinsey reports that nearly every company is investing in AI, yet only 1% claim they have fully integrated it into workflows and achieved meaningful business outcomes.
However …
The one thing that speeds tech adoption like nothing else is a rapid, meaningful, and measurable return on investment, especially if it means cutting jobs. A sad reality, but true.
We are in a time of economic uncertainty and turmoil. A responsible company must cut costs, and that is likely to mean rapid adoption of AI.
Of course, emerging AI regulations, energy needs, ethical guidelines, and compliance requirements could slow adoption. But cutting jobs is seen as an easy win by most companies.
How to become future-proof
Here are the working people I encountered in my life this week:
- A person who has cut my hair for 20 years
- Dozens of workers on a road construction project that delayed my drive
- A post office employee who helped me mail a book to Singapore
- A person who helps me with landscaping
- My family doctor for an annual check-up
- The person who changed the oil in my car
I can’t imagine that any of these individuals will be replaced by AI any time soon. AI will impact their jobs in some way (especially the doctor), but for many, life will be business as usual, at least for a few more years! So no, not every job is threatened by AI.
Specifically, let’s focus on marketing careers. What kind of marketer survives the great reshuffle?
Nobody really knows at this point, but here are a few thoughts:
Relationships
Some jobs will always be relationship-oriented. A B2B account manager who understands a client’s unspoken fears is irreplaceable — at least for now. I think people will still want face-to-face interactions when compassion and deep understanding are needed. We’ll need humans in the loop when the financial and legal stakes are high. Humans will manage AI functions/agents and remain accountable for performance and problems.
Insights
We will always value human insights. Are you in a job that delivers information or insights? If you only regurgitate reports and data (like my auditor friend), you’re vulnerable. But if you’re a creative director, subject matter expert, or have special star status in your industry, you’ll probably have a protected niche. You have vision.
Entrepreneurship
If you’re a curious person with drive, there is no better time to be alive. You don’t have to hire a coding team to build your business. You can direct AI to do it. Ideas + AI agency = Opportunity
During the pandemic, I predicted there would be an unprecedented new number of startups. That came true, because every fracture in the status quo creates new customer needs. We are at that same kind of inflection point.
Specialized marketing functions
I will be writing about this topic in an in-depth future post, but there are three areas of marketing that humans will still dominate in the AI Era.
Personal brand — When AI-generated content floods the zone with misinformation, we’ll need industry experts to help us navigate the truth and the future. Are you known in your industry? Are you the go-to authority? In many cases, the personal brand IS the brand.
Community — People long to belong. Brand communities will be uniquely bot-resistant.
Transcendent content — This is the subject of my book Audacious: How Humans Win in an AI Marketing World. To stand out in this pandemic of dull, we’ll need disruptive new stories and storytellers. It will take a unique human touch to create something so interesting, so compelling, and so worthy that people want to spread the word about your business and products.
Final thoughts on marketing employment
Almost every marketer describes AI as “exciting and terrifying,” and this is indeed the case. While there might be some scary stuff coming on the job scene, AI also creates a time of unprecedented marketing magic and fun.
I’ve presented a case today showing how some marketing jobs will be vulnerable. It’s a short article meant to start conversations. The outlook for AI is complex, and the future of marketing employment is not binary. While I do think a significant disruption is coming,
- Many jobs will be transformed rather than eliminated
- AI often augments human capabilities (like creativity) rather than fully replacing them
- Different industries and company sizes will adopt AI at different rates. AI job loss might be years away for some industries.
I believe the best attitude to adopt going forward is one of open-mindedness, determination, and positivity. Let’s not dwell on what we wish for. Let’s create businesses and new opportunities for ourselves based on what IS.
- Embrace AI at every turn.
- Build relationships and community.
- Deliver insights.
- Build your personal brand.
- Create something remarkable.
My friend Mike Moran and I debated the AI/employment issue, and he wisely concluded: “What really happens in the future will be complex. And I think it’s impossible to know how all of these factors will adjust to each other, so it’s perfectly valid to be optimistic or pessimistic, but it’s very dangerous for us to be certain.”
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Image courtesy Mid Journey